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“双碳”目标下超低能耗建筑市场发展建模及仿真研究
作者：常人龙，滕佳颖
（吉林建筑大学 经济与管理学院，吉林 长春 130118）
摘要：在节能减排“双碳”目标下，为更好推动建筑业实现绿色转型，促进建筑业可持续发展，基于全生命周期视角，从供需两端进行分析，以政府、开发商、消费者、施工单位为研究主体，探析影响超低能耗建筑市场发展的关键因素。通过建立系统动力学模型，对超低能耗建筑的发展进行仿真分析，并提出相应发展策略。结果表明，供给端成本因素对超低能耗建筑发展影响最大，金融及政策的影响次之；从需求端进行对比分析，发现需求端的量能变化更能刺激超低能耗建筑发展。据此研究，从超低能耗建筑存量改造和增量结构调整两方面入手，提出相关推广建议，以期推动超低能耗建筑快速发展。
关键词：碳达峰；碳中和；超低能耗建筑；系统动力学
中图分类号：TU201.5 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-702X（2022）08-0019-06
Research on the modeling and simulation of ultra-low energy buildings under the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"
CHANG Renlong，TENG Jiaying
（School of Economics and Management，Jilin Architecture and Civil Engineering Institute，Changchun 130118，China）
Abstract：Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals of energy saving and emission reduction，in order to better promote the green transformation and sustainable development of the construction industry，taking the government，developers，consumers and construction unit as the main research subjects，this paper analyzes the key factors affecting the development of the ultra-low energy consumption building market from the perspective of supply and demand based on the whole life cycle. By establishing a system dynamics model，the development of ultra-low energy consumption buildings is simulated and analyzed，and corresponding development strategies are proposed. The research results show that the supply-side cost factor has the greatest impact on the development of ultra-low energy buildings，followed by finance and policy. Comparative analysis from the demand side shows that changes in the demand side can more stimulate the development of ultra-low energy buildings. Based on this research，starting from the two aspects of ultra-low energy consumption building stock transformation and incremental structural adjustment，relevant promotion suggestions are put forward，so as to promote the rapid development of ultra-low energy buildings.
Key words：carbon peaking，carbon neutrality，ultra-low energy building，system dynamics